Prop: There isn't any reason to suspect that the props will be anyone other than Eric Fry and Shawn Pittman. Both of been the starters for over the last year and are the most experienced players on the roster. Nick Wallace, Phil Thiel, and Zach Fenoglio will all be looked at as options. Wallace in particular has done well when given his opportunity but he is still very green and it would hard to image him thrown into such an important match as a starter. Thiel and Fenoglion would be good options off the bench.
Take the jump to read more.
There is going to be a lot of pressure on the props during the series given the changes to the scrum laws. U.S. scrum coach Derek Dowling has been instrumental in making the changes at the IRB so hopefully he can help Fry and Pittman get up to speed. It will be interesting to see whether the new laws actually help the props.
Hooker: Again, it's a pretty straightforward decision for Tolkin. Biller has been the first choice since the last World Cup and will continue to be since no one has stepped up to challenge him. The back-up options to Biller include both Thiel and Fenoglio.
Lock: Here is where things get a big more tricky. Depending on what coach Tolkin elects to do in the back-row it could have in impact on the locks. Both Samu Manoa and Scott LaValla can play lock. Both would likely replace Brian Doyle as Lou Stanfill is one of the automatic starters on the squad. Graham Harriman is in camp but at this point depth at the position and in back-row will keep him out. The most likely scenario has Manoa and LaValla both starting in the back-row while Doyle starts with Stanfill in the locks. If either Doyle or Stanfill have to come off another back-row player will come on and Manoa or LaValla will slide over.
Back-row: The back-row put out against Ireland was arguably the strongest in the history of the U.S. program and with all three players available there is no reason why Manoa, LaValla, and Clever won't start. The bigger question is who backs them up. With John Quill out the primary back-up role belongs to Peter Dahl. Cam Dolan is in camp as well and will also likely make the bench.
Scrumhalf: Mike Petri and Robbie Shaw have traded off starts over the last year with each player have strong and poor matches. Shaw didn't have the greatest match against Canada in May last year and that could hurt him. Petri has been the go to guy in big matches as of late and will likely start. That said, we wouldn't be surprised if it was Shaw. Either way, the U.S. has two good options. Shaun Davies is back in camp but it's more likely they are looking to keep him up to speed for the ARC and the November tests. He could also be an emergency option in the backs.
Fly-half: Toby L'Estrange has the backing of the coaching staff and will start on Saturday. He has had some shaky moments this summer after a great November but much of that has been chalked up to the carousel of players used this summer. We don't by that completely but he is still the best option at the moment. Adam Siddall has been ruled out with injury. Roland Suniula can play the position just as he did in the World Cup but he spent the last year playing center. Folau Niua is in camp and could make the gameday roster but he is more an experiment at the moment.
Center: Paul Emerick's retirement has left a hole in the center position. Andrew Suniula will start at inside center but the U.S. still has to determine their long-term option at outside center. Seamus Kelly got several starts at the position this summer and grew with every game. However, he is still young and to put him into World Cup qualifying with only a few caps is a bit of a risk. Siddall and James Paterson are out with injury and unavailable. The other options at the position include Roland Suniula, who mostly plays insider center with his club, and Chris Wyles and Blaine Scully. Both could fill in and are valuable, but both are also natural fullbacks. Chris Chapman is also in camp but is probably more of a long-term look. He can also play fullback. We think that Kelly has done enough to earn the nod and will start on Saturday.
Wing: Any time Taku Ngwenya's name appears on a squad list he has to start. The only other true win on the roster is Luke Hume. Both will start against Canada barring some sort of injury. Both will probably play the whole match as well.
Fullback: Another position that could be affected by what Tolkin chooses to do at another position. Chris Wyles is a no-brainer to start but the question is whether you move him to center to create room for Blaine Scully or vice versa. Scully has probably earned more time but at this point it has to be Wyles with Scully coming off the bench.
Bench: Tolkin took a look at a lot of players this last week--31 in all. Some of the players are definite names for the future, such as Titi Lamositele, while others are in genuine consideration. But his choices on the bench are limited. In the backs there are three obvious choices in Shaw, Roland Suniula, and Scully. Shaw is too valuable of an option at an important position. Suniula can slide in at fly-half or in the centers while Scully can play center, wing, or fullback.
The forwards get more difficult. Peter Dahl is the most straightforward choice. Cam Dolan is also a good choice considering he can play in the back-row or lock. The first-row has struggled recently so its easy to see Tolkin keeping his options open with Wallace, Thiel, and Fenoglio. With the depth on the field that can switch to lock a player like Graham Harriman will be left out.
Predicted Line-up:
1. Eric Fry
2. Chris Biller
3. Shawn Pittman
4. Brian Doyle
5. Lou Stanfill
6. Samu Manoa
7. Scott LaValla
8. Todd Clever
9. Mike Petri
10. Toby L'Estrange
11. Luke Hume
12. Andrew Suniula
13. Seamus Kelly
14. Taku Ngwenya
15. Chris Wyles
16. Nick Wallace
17. Phil Thiel
18. Zach Fenoglio
19. Peter Dahl
20. Cam Dolan
21. Robbie Shaw
22. Roland Suniula
23. Blaine Scully
How the front row does in camp with the new scrum laws may affect who starts there. If someone like Wallace is "getting it" a lot faster, it may be better to go with those that are least likely to mess up the scrum.
ReplyDeleteI believe Kelly could do just fine, but it looks like Scully has good form right now so it might not be a bad idea to put him in at fullback. Meanwhile, moving Wyles up to center gets him more involved in the game, which we desperately need from the guy that is clearly our best player.
Agreed on the Scully/Wyles swap.
DeleteI published this under another article, but it is worth another look:
ReplyDeleteMy Eagles XV:
1 - Titi Lamositele: Been watching this kid for years...he is a powerhouse with ball in hand.
2 - Chris Biller: Veteran up front.
3 - Phil Thiel: Some question marks, but I personally liked what I saw when he came on.
4 - Brian Doyle: Solid lineout option.
5 - Lou Stanfill: He does the tough stuff well.
6 - Scott LaValla (c): I would make him my Captain. He has a better disposition than Clever.
7 - Todd Clever: I want him to run wild and not worry about dealing with the ref.
8 - Samu Manoa: He needs the ball more often.
9 - Mike Petri: He plays with some speed, not always a fan of his decisions.
10 - Folau Niua: I want to see what he can do pure and simple. USA needs a creative 10.
11 - Chris Chapman: While I am going with inexperience...
12 - Luke Hume: Thats right, 2nd 5/8. He played 1st 5/8 in League, so he can control things.
13 - Andrew Suiniula: He has all the tools the Emerick brought. He is the 13 we need.
14 - Taku Ngwenya: He has improved vastly over the years. Just need to get him the ball.
15 - Chris Wyles: A steady hand at the back.
I like Lamositele & Niua. But I would never think to give someone their first cap in an RWCQ unless there was absolutely no way around it or they were just so phenomenal that they count for three tries per match by themselves.
DeleteIs Chapman a Junior? Wasn't there a Chris Chapman played backs in English League years ago?
I think he came over with L'Estrange.
DeleteChapman was on tour last November.
ReplyDeleteIf you want to beat Canada, you're going to have to win the battle of the forward packs, which means the set pieces and breakdown contests. It looks like Canada is going with a traditional front 5 forward pack with the inclusion of Cudmore to the squad joining Phelan and Hotson as engine room options. All three play professionally and are specialist second rows. The Eagles have the personnel to deploy a back 5 pack strategy, but I don't think the group has had the time together, contact area skills or the 9 to play an offload quick ball game that moves the point of contact area around effectively enough to put the Canadian pack on the back foot forcing them to commit less players to the breakdown or pay the price with line breaks around the breakdown and the 10 channel. I would fight fire with fire and select as powerful a pack as possible and acknowledge that the scrum binding and straight put in changes can be exploited with the right selection.
ReplyDelete1. Eric Fry (Best option available)
2. Zach Fenoglio (A bigger more physical hooker than Biller with prop skills as he played TH at the age grade level before switching to hooker)
3. Shawn Pittman (Best option available. Will be helped by the absence of Canadian LH Hubert Buydens who is on club duty in NZ)
4. Brian Doyle (Traditional lock with tight 5 skills)
5. Graham Harriman (Traditional lock with tight 5 skills)
6. Cam Dolan (big, physical and athletic; time to have a chance to shine)
7. Scott LaValla (captain)
8. Samu Manoa (most effective option as ball carrier and to clean up sloppy ball at the base of the scrum)
16. Chris Biller (off the bench as impact player)
17. Nick Wallace (prop cover)
18. Lou Stanfill (off the bench impact player at either back row or second row)
19. Peter Dahl (back row cover)
20. Todd Clever (time to get used to the role as an off the bench back row impact player)
With the new scrum engagement and straight put-in changes the scrum will be less of a contest to win the hit and more a contest of what team can generate power and distribute it through the front row. If officiated as instructed by the IRB, the scrum will need to be stable and the ball needs to be put in straight. Winning the hit is not going to be the most important part of the scum any longer. Hit and chase is no longer the best option. Meaning hookers have to strike the ball and some old scrum tactics are now in play. Specifically, against the head scrums are an eight vs. seven contest as the attacking team needs to have the hooker strike. Having a hooker that is an experienced prop has more value to be able to push effectively and in a way to disrupt the opposition hooker, and to be skilled in distributing the power generated by the back 5 through the opposition in the best way possible to make a strike difficult and to get the opposition pack moving backwards to make the 2 to 8 and 8 to 9 exchange difficult. This is another reason to make sure you have a specialist engine room committed to working hard in the scrum and not thinking about their impact in the loose.
NOTE: If the USA had dominate props, I would go with a smaller hooker that would be skilled at striking the ball against the head. USA doesn't have that option. Also a smaller more dynamic hooker helps if playing a quick ball off load game plan, which I don’t think is wise for the USA to try to deploy.