U.S.A. vs. Canada Preview

This is it. Roughly two years of preparation and nearly a dozen matches for the U.S. now come down to a two match series against Canada for a place in the World Cup on the line. As we noted earlier today, head coach Mike Tolkin has called in a full-strength lineup for the match and they'll need to be at full-strength as they take on a Canadian team that has had the better of the U.S. over the last several years. Playing at home in Charleston, South Carolina--the site of their last win over Canada--will be an advantage, but it is still going to be a tough test. A win in the first leg tomorrow will go a long way to helping the team qualify as Americas 1.

Take the jump to see the lineups, keys to the match, and our prediction.
The Team

Mike Tolkin has named a very strong lineup for the match. All of the established international players like Samu Manoa, Taku Ngwenya, Chris Wyles, and Scott LaValla, are in camp and ready to play. Most of those players have been in pre-season for the last few weeks and should be in great fitness. Joining those players on the roster are regulars like Todd Clever, Mike Petri, and Andrew Suniula.

With the changes to the scrum laws the front-row is going to get plenty of attention. Shawn Pittman and Eric Fry return at the prop position. Both players have been steady presences at the position over the last few years and are the best options available to the Eagles at the moment. Fry in particular has been improving during his time with Manawatu and London Scottish. Chris Biller will be called on even more as hooker. With 26 caps to his name he is one of the more experienced players on the team. For all three players staying strong in the scrum and avoiding infractions is going to be key. Too often the U.S. gave up an easy three points this summer due to being manhandled in the scrum. Some are suggesting that the new laws will help the U.S. but that won't really be known until the game is played.

One of the big changes to the lineup for the match is the move of Samu Manoa to the locks from flanker. Manoa regularly plays lock with Northampton. Being paired with Lou Stanfill should make the lock pairing an extremely strong presence in the air and in the pack. They will face a big test in Jebb Sinclair and Jamie Cudmore. Along the back-row Peter Dahl takes Manoa's place and will be paired with Scott LaValla and Todd Clever.

Mike Petri has been chosen over Robbie Shaw at scrumhalf while Toby L'Estrange returns as fly-half. L'Estrange struggled at times during the summer but some, not all, of that was due to inconsistency in the lineup. Blaine Scully makes a surprise appearance at wing alongside Taku Ngwenya. Luke Hume was the only other natural wing on the extended roster but an lingering injury has ruled him out. Scully recently signed with Leicester but as mostly played full back in the past. That said, he is more than capable of playing wing. Chris Wyles will play at fullback and will have his hands full with Canadian stalwart James Pritchard.

Seamus Kelly earned all five of his caps this summer. He'll face a big challenge in sliding in at the outside center spot that was vacated when Paul Emerick retired. As the summer progressed he improved but World Cup qualifying is a big step up. Fortunately, he'll be protected a big by the presence of Andrew Suniula at inside center.

Forwards: Shawn Pittman, Chris Biller, Eric Fry, Lou Stanfill, Samu Manoa, Scott LaValla, Peter Dahl, Todd Clever

Backs: Mike Petri, Toby L'Estrange, Blaine Scully, Andrew Suniula, Seamus Kelly, Taku Ngwenya, Chris Wyles

Bench: Zach Fenoglio, Titi Lamositele, Phil Thiel, Brian Doyle, Cam Dolan, Robbie Shaw, Folau Niua, Roland Suniula

The Opponent

Canadian head coach Kieran Crowley has named a similarly strong lineup. Like the U.S., Canada has several high-profile overseas players available for the game. Jebb Sinclair, Jamie Cudmore, James Pritchard, and DTH Van Der Merwe are all established stars. The forward pack for Canada should be particularly strong. Although the are missing Hubert Buydens, they still have strong props in Andrew Tiedemann and Jason Marshall. Ryan Hamilton comes in at hooker. Sincliar and Cudmore are the locks while Tyler Ardron, who recently signed with the Ospreys, John Moonlight, and Aaron Carpenter form the back-row. All five of these players are extremely strong and scrum well.

In the backs DTH Van Der Merwe and James Pritchard will provide real leadership. Matt Evans has been one of Cornish Pirates better players. Evans took a nasty blow against Tonga earlier this summer but seems to have recovered fully. The halfback pairing of Phil Mack and Harry Jones has been very effective at times. Against a halfback pairing that is lacking confidence in the U.S. it could be advantage Canada.

Forwards: Andrew Tiedemann, Ryan Hamilton, Jason Marshall, Jebb Sinclair, Jamie Cudmore, Tyler Ardron, John Moonlight, Aaron Carpenter

Backs: Phil Mack, Harry Jones, DTH Van Der Merwe, Nick Blevins, Ciaran Hearn, Matt Evans, James Pritchard

Bench: Ray Barkwill, Tom Dolezel, Doug Wooldridge, Tyler Hotson, Nanyak Dala, Sean White, Nathan Hirayama, Sean Duke

The History

Both teams have met repeatedly over the last few years. Since the U.S beat Canada 12-6 in World Cup qualifying in 2009 the U.S. has dropped five straight matches to Canada. Some of the results have been close, like in Kingston in 2012, but some have been lopsided losses. The most recent result saw Canada win 16-9 earlier this summer despite both teams missing overseas players. Here are some of the recent results:

U.S. 12-6 Canada (2009)
Canada 41-18 U.S. (2009)
Canada 28-22 U.S. (2011)
Canada 27-7 U.S. (2011)
Canada 28-25 U.S. (2012)
Canada 16-9 U.S. (2013)

The Keys to the Match

Kicking: We say it in nearly every preview but this match could come down to kicking. With the total aggregate score of the two matches deciding the overall winner getting as many points as possible out of the first leg could be key. James Pritchard is nearly automatic for Canada so the burden will be on Chris Wyles to match him.

Scrum: The new laws are going to have an impact on the match but what kind of impact is less clear. The laws place more emphasis on the technical aspect of the scrum which could help the U.S., but neither Pittman nor Fry are know as extremely technical players.

Staying Calm: Whoever comes out of this first match ahead is going to have an advantage. For the U.S. it means not only getting a win but putting up the right score. For Canada it's keeping it close and hoping for a win. For both teams that means staying calm and realizing that it's not just about this week, but next week.

Dealing with the Unexpected: The weather tomorrow is expected to have a 60-70% chance of a thunderstorm. That could mean delays, a greasy ball, or wet conditions. The team that is able to adapt to the weather could be the team that advances.

The Bench: Both teams have fairly strong benches. Nathan Hirayama and Sean Duke are great weapons for Canada. Cam Dolan could make an impact off the bench for the Eagles. It will be interesting to see what happens with Titi Lamositele.

The Key Match-ups

Lou Stanfill and Samu Manoa vs. Jebb Sinclair and Jamie Cudmore: Tolkin made a bold choice in going with Manoa instead of Brian Doyle at lock. That move may be in part to match up with Sinclair and Cudmore, a very imposing pairing. The battle in the lineout is going to be epic and could be the difference in the match.

Blaine Scully and Taku Ngwenya vs. DTH Van der Merwe and Matt Evans: These four are extremely strong. Finding the space for a try could be hard.

Todd Clever vs. Aaron Carpenter: It's captain vs. captain in the battle. This match-up isn't so much about what each player does individually as much as it is about them leading their team.

Chris Wyles vs. James Pritchard: This battle is about kicking, plain and simple.

The Prediction

Anyone predicting a blow out either way should reconsider. At full-strength both teams are talent. We think that the U.S. comes out ahead at home by a try. Playing at home is going to be a huge advantage. We also think the addition of Manoa is a difference maker.