Take the jump to see changes to the team, a preview of the pool, and the keys to the tournament.
Team
Head coach Alex Magleby has only made one change to his squad in bringing in Pila Taufa to replace Jack Halalilo. Taufa was the designated emergency player last weekend in Glasgow. With nothing to play for except for pride, it’s the perfect time to put the newest residency player out on the field to see how he does. Taufa is extremely fast but also a big body that should give defenders plenty of trouble.
One of the most notable aspects from last weekend was how little Magleby used his bench at times. He had his core group of starters and then only brought on limited substitutions late in the second half. Even when he changed out two starters for the last two matches there wasn’t as much movement off the bench. But that strategy seems to be working and getting the most out of both starters and bench players. Bringing players like Carlin Isles and Luke Hume off the bench seems to play to their strengths. Both bring pace and dynamic running that keeps their opponents on their doors in the final stretches of the game when energy wanes. It’s unclear if we will see the same substitution pattern this week, but if it’s not broken, why fix it?
Squad: Andrew Durutalo, Nick Edwards, Matt Hawkins, Colin Hawley, Luke Hume, Carlin Isles, Folau Niua, Blaine Scully, Shalom Suniula, Pila Taufa, Zach Test, and Brett Thompson
Opponents
France (4:30 a.m. et/1:30 a.m. pt): The U.S. picked up a big 21-14 win over France last week when they needed it the most to advance to the Cup quarterfinals and secure core status. It was once again a close result. The previous two times the teams faced each other this year France won by two points each occasion. As we said last week, these two teams match up against each other really well. France has some crafty players but they also have the tendency to make mental mistakes at times. A lack of possession also gets them rattled as the U.S. showed last week. The French team is essentially the same as last week with only a couple of changes, however, one of players absent this week is veteran Paul Albaladejo. If the Eagles can keep the ball away from France and then use their speed out wide they could see a repeat of last week’s win.
Australia (9:02 a.m. et/6:02 a.m. pt): The last time the U.S. faced Australia was back in Las Vegas where the Eagles looked poor in a 26-7 win. But that was a long time ago in the sevens world and the Eagles are playing better than they were at that time. Ed Jenkins makes his long-awaited return from injury and will bring a lot of veteran savvy to a young Australian team. Consistency (or lack of it) has been the major factor in the Wallabies season. One week they can beat anyone in the world and then the next they are struggling in the Bowl. Which team shows up in London is the big question. If it’s the attack-minded, intelligent team that controls possession and chokes out its opponents, the U.S. might be in trouble, but if it’s the team that seems disinterested and gifts possession, the U.S. could be in line for a memorable match.
South Africa (11:02 a.m. et/8:02 a.m. pt): Last week the U.S. had two blemishes on their record: a narrow loss to Wales that they should have had, and a blowout loss to South Africa, the eventual champions. The Blitzbokke are simply playing fantastic rugby right now and it is going to take a perfect effort from the U.S. to take them down. In four meetings this season the U.S. hasn’t scored more than two tries against South Africa while the lowest score they gave up was 17. Paul Treu’s team is not invincible but if you carelessly give the ball away they are going to punish you.
Keys to the Tournament
Because the main event in London is comprised of only 12 teams, the top two teams in each pool advance to the Cup quarterfinals along with the top two second place finishers. That means the Eagles won’t have to win two or three matches to advance but they will have to have a high enough point differential to do so at the end. In order to get that point differential the Eagles are going to have to repeat their strengths from last weekend, namely winning restarts, controlling large stretches of possession, staying organized on defense, and mentally focusing for 14 minutes.
In Glasgow, the aerial game of Zach Test, Colin Hawley, and Blaine Scully was the difference in the tournament. By winning or disrupting the restarts the U.S. was able to put themselves in decent field position, as well as get the defense on their heels. In particular, the team had success winning restarts against France and will need to do so again this weekend. Winning those restarts may be more difficult against Australia seeing as they have their aerial players of their own, but even if the U.S. can win half as many restarts as they did last week they should be in good shape.
Speaking of shape, the defensive effort last week was phenomenal. The U.S. bent several times but almost always came up with the needed stop. For proof just look at Carlin Isles chase down at the end of the Fiji match to see how committed the team was to defense. The defensive work at the breakdown has in particular been a recent strength. Several tries last week were a direct result of the U.S. getting stuck in and winning the ball. Again, their opponents this week will be smarter than what they saw last week but it’s something in which the Eagles can see success.
A few things the team needs to improve upon this week are converting tries and adapting to the referee. The kicking was good last week but it still needs to be better. Those are points left hanging out that can make a difference in a tight match, such as the match against Wales showed last week. Adapting to the referees has also been a worry this season. It seems like every week the referees have new definitions for infractions and while other teams are quick to pick up on the changes the U.S. is consistently slow. Realizing how the referee is calling the match will help at the breakdown and give the team one less thing to think about.
Prediction
Reaching the Cup quarterfinals for the fifth time this season—a majority of the tournaments—is not out of the question for the United States. Defeating South Africa looks like a hurdle too far at the moment but wins against France and Australia are there for the taking. The two other pools in the tournament also look daunting for teams at the bottom meaning there could be a wider margin of victory in each match, opening up the door for the U.S. if they have one blowout win and two close losses. If the U.S. can’t beat both France and Australia, they will have to keep it close against South Africa. With the pressure off this week, we think they do it.
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