Friday, July 8, 2016

Breaking Down The PRO Rugby Title Race

The inaugural PRO Rugby season only has three weeks left and it's looking like the title race is going to come down to the very end. After holding a dominant lead for most of the season a title win is no guarantee for Denver following their loss to Ohio a few weeks back and the Aviators picking up a bonus point in all but one of their matches. As things stand Ohio sit a top the table with 37 points followed by Denver at 31 points. However, Ohio have only two matches remaining on the season while Denver have four left.

Technically San Diego still have a chance with three matches left but they would have to take away maximum points in their remaining three matches while both Ohio and Denver would have to fall apart taking basically nothing from their remaining matches. Both San Francisco and Sacramento have been officially eliminated for a couple of weeks.

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So here is how things shake out for the rest of the year. Beginning this week Ohio faces Sacramento at Bonney field before a two week layoff. On the last week of the regular season they will face Denver at Memorial Park. Assuming that Ohio beat Sacramento on Saturday and take away the full bonus points (not a given considering that Ohio hasn't been great on the road and Sacramento was solid last week) then that will put them on 42 points heading into the final week.

For their part Denver take on San Diego at home this week followed by Sacramento at home the following week. They then finish out the season on the road against San Francisco and Ohio. Assuming that Denver take away bonus point wins from all three of their matches before the final match against Ohio that would put them on 46 points. In that scenario Denver would head into the final match only needing a draw or two bonus points. Ohio would have to win. Where it gets complicated is if each team drops a match or doesn't pick up the full compliment of bonus points.

In any scenario it's important for each team to win out the remainder of their schedule before the end of the year. Ohio must beat Sacrament on Saturday and Denver must regain their form from the beginning of the season to deliver big wins over the California teams.

Remaining Schedule

Week 13
Ohio at Sacramento
San Diego at Denver

Week 14
San Diego at San Francisco
Sacramento at Denver

Week 15
Denver at San Francisco

Week 16
San Francisco at Sacramento
Denver at Ohio

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